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Kibbles and Picks 2019 - Week 7

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The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Stella and I put up identical 7-6 records on our picks last week, and so the score remains the same. I maintain my slim single-game advantage for the season and Stella continues to bide her time, allowing me another week of hope before my inevitable defeat.

Or maybe not.

We’re at odds on fully half the slate this week – seven of the 14 games are in dispute. And with an odd number, we’re at the very least ensured of SOME movement, even if it’s just one game. But Stella and I both played hunches and took some gambles here in Week 7. We’ll see whether they pay off.

First up, let’s have a look at Minnesota/Detroit. I’m taking the Vikings to win on the road. While I don’t believe that last week’s Kirk Cousins is the real Kirk Cousins, I also don’t know that the Lions have the secondary strength to keep Stefon Diggs and/or Adam Thielen from doing whatever they want. Throw in Dalvin Cook and Detroit is in trouble. Stella’s got the Lions at home. She figures that Matthew Stafford will throw it like he usually does, with the added bonus of Kerryonn Johnson looking awfully good on the ground. She also expects real regression from Cousins and the Vikings passing attack.

In one of my gut picks, I’m picking Oakland to go into Green Bay and beat the Packers. I can’t really explain why I’m making this pick, other than the fact that rookie running back Josh Jacobs has looked awfully good and I feel like the Green Bay defense is deceptively beatable. Stella is happy to take my action on this one; she sees QB Aaron Rodgers showing his age a little, but she also knows that 75% of Rodgers is still top-tier in the NFL. She’s curious as to how the running game shakes out, but she likes Aaron Jones to bounce back. She expects a good-not-great passing day with just enough stops for the Packers to eke out the win.

As for Houston/Indianapolis, I’m taking the Colts at home. I recognize how hot the Texans are right now, but I like Indy to get things done at home. They’re coming off the bye, so they’ve had time to prepare. Jacoby Brissett and Marlon Mack have had a chance to rest up. They’re fresh and prepared – I like them to cool down Houston. Stella disagrees wholeheartedly; she’s actually calling for a big game out of Deshaun Watson. She thinks DeAndre Hopkins is going to go off against the Colts and won’t be surprised if Will Fuller breaks off a couple of big ones. And she thinks the Texans pass rush will keep Brissett off-balance all night.

Sometimes, you make a pick without really knowing why. I picked the Cardinals over the Giants. Stella picked the Giants over the Cardinals. I went with Arizona on the road because I like Kyler Murray. Stella went with the Giants at home because Saquon Barkley is coming back. No one should watch this game.

Probably shouldn’t watch this one either – Chargers/Titans. Another roll of the dice for me; I’m betting that Ryan Tannehill replacing Marcus Mariota under center will give Tennessee a jumpstart. Stella thinks that’s nonsense, and that Philip Rivers will have no trouble moving the offense. But again – no one cares. Certainly not either of us.

I like the Bears at home hosting the Saints. While I recognize that the quarterback issues in Chicago are real, I think that their defense will be able to keep the team in the game. The Bears are a lot more likely to win 13-10 than 31-28; the less reliant on the underperforming offense, the better. Stella recognizes the risks of this pick, but the truth is that New Orleans just keeps winning with Teddy Bridgewater at QB. If he continues his quality game management and Alvin Kamara touches the ball 20 times, the Saints will probably win. Especially since their defense is quietly better than a lot of people realize.

And finally, in a game that is surprisingly important for this early in the season, we have the Eagles going to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. I’m taking the visitors here; while the Eagles have had some issues with consistency, Dallas looks to really be reeling. I think Carson Wentz and company will be able to take advantage, while the opportunistic defense could come up with a big turnover or two. Stella isn’t giving up on Dak Prescott and thinks that the young QB is poised to reestablish himself as one of the league’s best. As long as Zeke Elliott is getting his carries, the offense will be open enough to pull off a couple of long gains. And the Cowboys defense won’t want to get shown up by their division rivals. The winner here is in the NFC East driver’s seat – they’re going to fight for it.

And that’s where we’re at. Will this be the week that I relinquish my lead for good? Only time will tell.

(winners in caps)

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ALLEN’S PICKS

Thursday, Oct. 17

KANSAS CITY at Denver

Sunday, Oct. 20

LA RAMS at Atlanta

Miami at BUFFALO

JACKSONVILLE at Cincinnati

MINNESOTA at Detroit

OAKLAND at Green Bay

Houston at INDIANAPOLIS

ARIZONA at NY Giants

SAN FRANCISCO at Washington

LA Chargers at TENNESSEE

New Orleans at CHICAGO

Baltimore at SEATTLE

Philadelphia at DALLAS

Monday, Oct. 21

NEW ENGLAND at NY Jets

Week 6 record: 7-6

Season record: 55-35-1

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STELLA’S PICKS

Thursday, Oct. 17

KANSAS CITY at Denver

Sunday, Oct. 20

LA RAMS at Atlanta

Miami at BUFFALO

JACKSONVILLE at Cincinnati

Minnesota at DETROIT

Oakland at GREEN BAY

HOUSTON at Indianapolis

Arizona at NY GIANTS

SAN FRANCISCO at Washington

LA CHARGERS at Tennessee

NEW ORLEANS at Chicago

Baltimore at SEATTLE

Philadelphia at DALLAS

Monday, Oct. 21

NEW ENGLAND at NY Jets

Week 6 record: 7-6

Season record: 54-36-1

Last modified on Thursday, 17 October 2019 09:19

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