-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Maria Bakalova – BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
Kate Hudson – MUSIC
Michelle Pfeiffer – FRENCH EXIT
Rosamund Pike – I CARE A LOT
Anya Taylor-Joy – EMMA.
Let’s be real – there are a couple of nominees here who have almost no chance at a win. Hudson is nominated, though no one is sure why (least of all the 14 people who have actually seen the controversial “Music”). This is a headscratcher among headscratchers. Suffering from a different issue is Pfeiffer, who by all accounts is wonderful in “French Exit,” but “all accounts” is relative – this is another film that simply hasn’t been seen all that much. So again – probably a no. I quite liked “Emma.” And I really liked Taylor-Joy in it. But that film came out a LONG time ago – so long that she actually had an even better turn in “The Queen’s Gambit.” A deserving nominee, but ultimately just happy to be here. At the risk of more recency bias, I have to say that Rosamund Pike crushes in “I Care A Lot.” She brings a brittle iciness to the proceedings that is just a delight to watch, a perfect dark comedy protagonist. And yet – this award is almost certainly Bakalova’s to lose. The Globes love making unconventional choices and this is an easy path to do exactly that. Bakalova was an unknown, yet she’s hanging with (and often outshining) a force like Sacha Baron Cohen. And comedy or not, this might be the bravest performance of anyone on this list. Bakalova’s going to win and she deserves it.
Winner: Maria Bakalova
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Sacha Baron Cohen – BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
James Corden – THE PROM
Lin-Manuel Miranda – HAMILTON
Dev Patel – THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD
Andy Samberg – PALM SPRINGS
Okay, so I have some problems with a couple of the nominees in this category, so let’s get those out of the way first. First, we’ll start with Miranda. I watched “Hamilton.” I loved “Hamilton.” I just don’t believe that it belongs here. Not because it was bad, but because in my opinion, it isn’t really a movie. As for Corden, well … yikes. “The Prom” was a valiant effort at something that largely fell flat, and while it featured a few solid performances, I’d argue that Corden’s wasn’t one of them. Just an odd choice here. I’ve always liked Dev Patel, but I – like most of you, I’d wager – never saw this movie. He’s a talented performer, but it simply doesn’t seem like the kind of performance that’s going to snag you a win. “Palm Springs” was one of my favorite movies of the year and Andy Samberg’s performance is a huge reason why; it is perhaps the first project he’s done that has suitably harnessed his weird chaotic energy in a more mainstream (but still weird) project. I’d be pleased to see him win. He won’t though, because I can’t imagine a world in which Cohen doesn’t win. Bringing Borat back was a major gamble, but he made it pay off, both in terms of the quality of the film and its impact on the zeitgeist. Plus, the HFPA loves him. One-two punch for “Borat 2.”
Winner: Sacha Baron Cohen
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Viola Davis – MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
Andra Day – THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
Vanessa Kirby – PIECES OF A WOMAN
Frances McDormand – NOMADLAND
Carey Mulligan – PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
This is an interesting collection of talent for sure. In truth, it’s a lot closer than this category sometimes can be. We’ll start with Day – while I have yet to see “The United States vs. Billie Holliday” (it becomes available on Amazon Prime Video this weekend), I’ve heard that it is a tremendous performance. However, I’ve also heard that she’s fifth on this list. Kirby is absolutely heartbreaking in “Pieces of a Woman,” giving a vulnerable and painful foundation to this tale of grief and the damage it can do. Davis gives a bravura performance as the titular Ma Rainey in her film, bringing her exquisite energy to the proceedings. It’s a bold, brassy turn – great fun to watch. Personally, I don’t think I’ve seen a better performance this year than what McDormand does in “Nomadland,” though I’ll concede that there might be a touch of recency bias. Still, it really is an incredible performance. That said, it seems that the conventional wisdom has Mulligan winning for her genre-subverting turn in “Promising Young Woman.” It’s certainly the flashier of the performances in what I believe to be a two-person race. The HFPA clearly likes this movie and this might be the spot where it is easiest for them to recognize it. So yeah – Mulligan wins, but by rights, I think this trophy should probably go to McDormand.
Winner: Carey Mulligan
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Riz Ahmed – SOUND OF METAL
Chadwick Boseman – MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
Anthony Hopkins – THE FATHER
Gary Oldman – MANK
Tahar Rahim – THE MAURITANIAN
This is one place where the topsy-turvy nature of the current cinematic landscape causes some issues. A couple of these films – “The Father” and “The Mauritanian” – have yet to go into any kind of wide release; they just haven’t been seen by that many people. As such, I’m guessing that the performances by Hopkins and Rahim (both excellent, if what I’ve heard is to be believed) won’t ultimately make it to the top of the heap. Oldman is always great; his work in “Mank” is no exception. There’s an old-school Hollywood franticness to his performance that really works. Unfortunately for him, I think the movie has been somewhat lost in the discourse. I absolutely loved Riz Ahmed’s performance in “Sound of Metal,” one of the most unique turns of the year. It’s a thoughtful and nuanced take on a role that could have ultimately been very one-note. Instead, we get a symphony. Most years, I think he has a real shot. This isn’t most years. The late Chadwick Boseman is almost certainly going to win for his exceptional work in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” And no, this isn’t some sort of legacy win – I feel strongly that he would be taking home this win if he was still with us. It is a sharp, smart and shockingly poignant performance from Boseman – one that absolutely deserves to be rewarded.
Winner: Chadwick Boseman
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Glenn Close – HILLBILLY ELEGY
Olivia Colman – THE FATHER
Jodie Foster – THE MAURITANIAN
Amanda Seyfried – MANK
Helena Zengel – NEWS OF THE WORLD
This is another one where I’m hamstrung by the fact that a couple of the movies simply aren’t available to wider audiences yet. I’ve loved Olivia Colman in everything in which I’ve seen her and I have no doubt that she’s great in “The Father,” but … I haven’t seen it. No one has. And look – any opportunity to get the Jodie Foster discourse going, I am here for it. This is her first film in three years – hopefully, we’ll all get a chance to see it soon. It’s a no-doubt earned nomination, but it seems unlikely that she wins. I wasn’t as down on “Hillbilly Elegy” as many were, but that doesn’t change the fact that Close is blatantly awards-hunting in poverty drag here. It’s a trophy grab, but unfortunately, the film around her isn’t enough to get her over the finish line. She’ll get her win someday, but this ain’t it. The Globes love of rewarding new talent might get some traction for Zengel, who at 12 hung with Tom Hanks. People have raved about her performance; in other years, she might have had a shot. But I believe this is Seyfried’s award to win – particularly because I think the powers that be want to reward “Mank” and this is probably the easiest spot in which to do it. It doesn’t hurt that she is absolutely wonderful, giving the best performance of her career.
Winner: Amanda Seyfried
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Sacha Baron Cohen – THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Daniel Kaluuya – JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Jared Leto – THE LITTLE THINGS
Bill Murray – ON THE ROCKS
Leslie Odom Jr. – ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI...
The remarkable thing about this category is that in this movie year, there were some incredible supporting turns. And yet … Jared Leto is here. His weird, in-a-different-film performance in “The Little Things” was memorable, but maybe not in the way you’d hope. The walk alone … sheesh. Not at all sure how he got here. Ditto Bill Murray, who is undeniably charismatic and charming in “On the Rocks,” but he’s essentially just doing a riff on Bill Murray. A fine performance. Good, but not trophy good. It’s interesting that they landed on Leslie Odom Jr. as the nominee for “One Night in Miami…” – you could make a case for all four actors. He’s wonderful as Sam Cooke, giving a dynamic performance. He certainly deserves to be here, but he won’t win. Cohen has an outside shot at a double win – he really is very good as Abbie Hoffman – though he’s another who was part of a cast that featured numerous other potential worthwhile nominees. Again, an excellent turn. Not excellent enough to beat out Kaluuya, though, who absolutely breathes fire as Black Panther leader Fred Hampton. It is a transformative performance, one that mixes rage and rhetoric in a way that is simply unforgettable. Honestly, I think the entirety of awards season is going to be a series of coronations of this performance – Kaluuya is going to win everything he’s up for.
Winner: Daniel Kaluuya
-
BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
Emerald Fennell – PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Jack Fincher – MANK
Aaron Sorkin – THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller – THE FATHER
Chloe Zhao – NOMADLAND
This is one of the few categories this year where I feel like almost every nominee has a legitimate chance at the win. The exception is probably “The Father.” For all the reasons that I mentioned with regard to Hopkins and Colman, I don’t think that Hampton and Zeller are going to win. After that, though, things get interesting. Every so often, we get what I call a “narrative” win – a win that comes courtesy of a good story. That’s Jack Fincher and “Mank” – longtime passion project of father and son finally makes it to the big screen. It’s possible that we get the narrative win here, but ultimately, I think Supporting Actress is the extent of “Mank” recognition. Fennell is in the same boat – one gets the impression that “Promising Young Woman” lands second or third on a lot of lists. Still, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if she gets the nod here – the film has gotten a ton of positive attention. If I were voting, I’d probably go with Zhao and “Nomadland” – it’s just such an exquisite, beautifully crafted film that benefits greatly from the quality of the script. But again, I just want to give all the awards to this movie and I’m not sure the HFPA shares my feelings. You know who they love, though? Aaron Sorkin. And there’s no denying that the sheer craftsmanship of his script for “The Trial of the Chicago 7” warrants recognition. I think he wins here – and it’s a deserved win, even if I’d make a different choice. Come Oscar time, I bet he and Zhao both strike gold.
Winner: Aaron Sorkin
-
BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
Emerald Fennell – PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
David Fincher – MANK
Regina King – ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI...
Aaron Sorkin – THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Chloe Zhao – NOMADLAND
Another stacked category for sure. And let’s not sleep on the fact that we have three women among the five nominees – a first for the directing category. I hate putting King at the bottom of the list, because I genuinely loved “One Night in Miami...” That said, someone has to be last, and there’s no shame in being last on this list. It’s her first film and I expect to see her pop up on plenty of lists like this in the future. Sorkin the director doesn’t quite measure up to Sorkin the screenwriter; his work on “Chicago 7” is solid but unspectacular – not really a recipe for recognition. I’m guessing the screenplay win will have to suffice. Once again, I feel like Fennell falls victim to a wrong place/wrong time situation. Her work on the film is excellent, but I’m just not sure it has the oomph to push ahead of the more celebrated names ahead of her. Names like Fincher, who has that narrative behind him to go along with the exceptional work he did with “Mank” – if he wins, I won’t be surprised. It’s a great piece of work. It’s just not as great as Zhao’s. Even with all the great work in the category, she really does feel like a shoo-in for the victory here. The combination of epic scale and aggressive intimacy she captures in “Nomadland” is the kind of stuff that should (and usually does) get rewarded. I’m going with Zhao, but I don’t believe there’s a wrong answer here.
Winner: Chloe Zhao
-
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
HAMILTON
MUSIC
PALM SPRINGS
THE PROM
An eclectic selection, to be sure. Let’s start with this: “Music” is definitely not going to win. Controversy surrounding a film is a great way to generate buzz, but you have to make sure that the controversy isn’t tied in with the fact that your film isn’t, you know … good. Next – “The Prom.” Sure, when the category is “Musical or Comedy,” the thought is that you’ll bring a musical into the fray. Great. Too bad this time it’s “The Prom,” a weird Ryan Murphy fever dream that was never going to have any chance of matching its stage energy on screen. Of course, they ALSO brought “Hamilton” into the conversation, which, as I’ve previously stated, shouldn’t be here at all. Not because it is bad – it’s very good – but because IT ISN’T A MOVIE. It is a filmed play and that is a very different thing. And so, just like that, we’re down to two. “Palm Springs” was a delightful subversion of multiple tropes – rom-coms, time loops, you name it. And it featured strong performances, some real feeling and a load of genuine laughs. An excellent and worthwhile nomination. Honestly, I’d be perfectly content if it won here. It won’t though, because remember what I said earlier about controversy? “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” is a prime example of the benefits. It is an unsettling and deeply weird movie that is awkward and hilarious and features two of the year’s best performances, all with an added bonus of catching Rudy Giuliani pants-handed.
Winner: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
-
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
THE FATHER
MANK
NOMADLAND
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
We’ve talked about this enough, so I’ll just repeat: no one has seen “The Father,” so it seems highly unlikely that it is going to take home a trophy for Best Picture. Again, I have no doubt that it is excellent. I – along with the vast majority of people – look forward to seeing it. From there, it’s a very tight race, with the 1-2 and 3-4 spots being almost a coin flip. I’ll go with “Promising Young Woman” over “Mank” by the slimmest of margins, though the Hollywood history of “Mank” might capture the attention of HFPA voters. Still, I think that there’s plenty of love for Emerald Fennell and her film, though probably not enough for her to squeak out the win. No, I think this race is going to come down to two – “The Trial of the Chicago 7” and “Nomadland.” It’s interesting to consider, because by my reckoning, we’re going to come into this one with big wins for each: Sorkin for Best Screenplay and Zhao for Best Director. I genuinely don’t know who I feel most strongly about here – I’ve gone back and forth half-a-dozen times just in the process of writing this story. For the most part, I’ve gone with my head over my heart in these picks – focusing on who I think will win rather than who should. My head is saying that I should go with “Chicago 7,” that its star-studded cast is more the HFPA’s speed. That’s probably the smart play … but this time, I’m going with my heart. I’m going with Chloe Zhao and “Nomadland.”
Winner: Nomadland
-
And, as promised, here are my even-less-informed picks for the rest of the awards.
MOVIES
BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
THE CROODS: A NEW AGE
ONWARD
OVER THE MOON
SOUL
WOLFWALKERS
Winner: Soul
-
BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE
ANOTHER ROUND (DENMARK)
LA LLORONA (GUATEMALA / FRANCE)
THE LIFE AHEAD (ITALY)
MINARI (USA)
TWO OF US (FRANCE / USA)
Winner: Minari
-
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
ALEXANDRE DESPLAT - THE MIDNIGHT SKY
LUDWIG GÖRANSSON - TENET
JAMES NEWTON HOWARD - NEWS OF THE WORLD
TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS - MANK
TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS, JON BATISTE - SOUL
Winner: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Jon Batiste - Soul
-
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
“FIGHT FOR YOU” — JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Music by: H.E.R., Dernst Emile II
Lyrics by: H.E.R., Tiara Thomas
“HEAR MY VOICE” — THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Music by: Daniel Pemberton
Lyrics by: Daniel Pemberton, Celeste Waite
“IO SÌ (SEEN)” — THE LIFE AHEAD
Music by: Diane Warren
Lyrics by: Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi
“SPEAK NOW” — ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI...
Music by: Leslie Odom, Jr., Sam Ashworth
Lyrics by: Leslie Odom, Jr., Sam Ashworth
“TIGRESS & TWEED” — THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
Music by: Raphael Saadiq, Andra Day
Lyrics by: Raphael Saadiq, Andra Day
Winner: "Speak Now" - Leslie Odom Jr. & Sam Ashworth
-
TELEVISION
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
THE CROWN - NETFLIX
LOVECRAFT COUNTRY - HBO
THE MANDALORIAN - DISNEY+
OZARK - NETFLIX
RATCHED – NETFLIX
Winner: The Crown
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Olivia Colman - THE CROWN
Jodie Comer - KILLING EVE
Emma Corrin - THE CROWN
Laura Linney - OZARK
Sarah Paulson – RATCHED
Winner: Emma Corrin
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Jason Bateman - OZARK
Josh O’Conner - THE CROWN
Bob Odenkirk - BETTER CALL SAUL
Al Pacino - HUNTERS
Matthew Rhys - PERRY MASON
Winner: Jason Bateman
-
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
EMILY IN PARIS - NETFLIX
THE FLIGHT ATTENDANT - HBO MAX
THE GREAT - HULU
SCHITT'S CREEK - POP TV
TED LASSO - APPLE TV+
Winner: Schitt’s Creek
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Lily Collins - EMILY IN PARIS
Kaley Cuoco - THE FLIGHT ATTENDANT
Elle Fanning - THE GREAT
Jane Levy - ZOEY'S EXTRAORDINARY PLAYLIST
Catherine O’Hara - SCHITT'S CREEK
Winner: Catherine O’Hara
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Don Cheadle - BLACK MONDAY
Nicholas Hoult - THE GREAT
Eugene Levy - SCHITT'S CREEK
Jason Sudeikis - TED LASSO
Ramy Youssef – RAMY
Winner: Jason Sudeikis
-
BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
NORMAL PEOPLE - HULU
THE QUEEN'S GAMBIT - NETFLIX
SMALL AXE - AMAZON STUDIOS
THE UNDOING - HBO
UNORTHODOX - NETFLIX
Winner: The Queen’s Gambit
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Cate Blanchett - MRS. AMERICA
Daisy Edgar-Jones - NORMAL PEOPLE
Shira Haas - UNORTHODOX
Nicole Kidman - THE UNDOING
Anya Taylor-Joy - THE QUEEN'S GAMBIT
Winner: Anya Taylor-Joy
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Bryan Cranston - YOUR HONOR
Jeff Daniels - THE COMEY RULE
Hugh Grant - THE UNDOING
Ethan Hawke - THE GOOD LORD BIRD
Mark Ruffalo - I KNOW THIS MUCH IS TRUE
Winner: Mark Ruffalo
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE
Gillian Anderson - THE CROWN
Helena Bonham Carter - THE CROWN
Julia Garner - OZARK
Annie Murphy - SCHITT'S CREEK
Cynthia Nixon – RATCHED
Winner: Gillian Anderson
-
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE
John Boyega - SMALL AXE
Brendan Gleeson - THE COMEY RULE
Daniel Levy - SCHITT'S CREEK
Jim Parsons - HOLLYWOOD
Donald Sutherland - THE UNDOING
Winner: John Boyega