First up is the second Saturday game. I’m going with the visiting Cowboys over the Eagles. This one feels like a bit of a gift from Stella; Dallas looks more than capable of handling this Philadelphia squad. The offense should be fine – I think Dak Prescott will spread the ball around – but my expectations rest largely on the defense, though it’s worth mentioning that there are some health questions on that side of the ball. Stella is going with Philly because she expects Jalen Hurts to go big against that dinged-up Dallas D while also anticipating some good luck getting after the quarterback on the defensive side. It’s tricky because both teams are more or less locked into their playoff spots, so it’ll come down to which team feels more like playing hard in the moment.
From there, we’re off to the utterly meaningless Washington/New York matchup. I’ve got the Football Team, Stella’s got the Giants. I think the Giants lay down and hope for a better draft pick. Stella also thinks they’ll do that, but somehow screw it up and accidentally win because they’re the Giants. We both beg you – don’t watch this game.
Next, I’ve got the Steelers going into Baltimore and taking down the Ravens. Pittsburgh needs a win to have a shot at getting into the playoffs; while I don’t think Ben Roethlisberger is going to show out, I do think that a healthy helping of a hitting-his-stride Najee Harris will be enough against the Ravens. Plus, T.J. Watt is looking for that sack record, so the D will be amped up. Stella thinks that Baltimore – a team that ALSO needs a win to have any chance at a postseason berth – will figure out a way to hold serve at home, even with Tyler Huntley under center instead of Lamar Jackson. Her thought is that this defense will harass Roethlisberger into making mistakes and then take advantage of those errors. Both teams need a LOT of help to make the playoffs, but the path is only possible with a win. Expect a slugfest.
In what feels like another gift, I’ve got the Saints beating the Falcons in Atlanta. New Orleans has looked pretty good over the last few weeks, particularly on the defensive side – they more or less stopped giving up TDs for a month. Taysom Hill is a flawed QB, but his work on the ground combined with that of Alvin Kamara will be more than enough to upend a Falcons team that has nothing to play for. Stella concedes that this pick might be a little bit of a flex, but also notes that Atlanta is not without strong skill players. She’s gambling that QB Matt Ryan pulls off a couple of big plays – maybe a strong finish for rookie tight end Kyle Pitts? – and forces the Saints to play catch-up. She recognizes the risk, but with this kind of lead, why not take some swings?
After that, we’ve got San Francisco/Los Angeles. I’m picking the visiting 49ers over the Rams; they don’t NEED a win to get in – they’ll also make it if the Saints beat the Falcons – but a win ensures their spot. I’m guessing we’ll see some big plays out of Deebo Samuel and competent QB work out of Jimmy G. I don’t love the defense against this Rams attack, but I’ve got to take my own swings, you know? Stella’s all Rams here – they’re already in the postseason, but a win lands them an NFC West crown and a high seed. She also thinks that the team will be fired up to try and help wideout Cooper Kupp break the single-season records for receptions and receiving yards (he needs 12 and 118, respectively), so expect Matthew Stafford and company to keep throwing whenever possible. The Niners are hungry, but this Rams team is just better.
It’s funny – I wouldn’t have thought Stella would prioritize trolling me over maximizing her picks. She’s had some low-key digs over the course of the season, but all seemed reasonable. This time, though, while I’ve picked the New England Patriots to win, she’s calling for the Dolphins to win at home. It seems foolish – Pats QB Mac Jones has looked solid all season, leading this team to wins over much better teams than Miami. The running game is thriving behind Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, while Jakobi Meyers looks like the real deal. Oh, and the defense – particularly the secondary – has shown itself capable of shutting down anybody. Stella acknowledges all that and counters with New England’s recent track record w/r/t games in Miami. Specifically, that the Patriots have won just twice in the previous eight contests where they faced the Dolphins in Miami. Are the Patriots better? Sure, but sometimes, there’s more than talent at play.
Lastly, I have the Raiders winning at home against the Chargers. I think Las Vegas will be able to move the ball against L.A. I think Hunter Renfrow will have a huge game here, as will running back Josh Jacobs. You’d think the Raiders would have fallen apart, but they’ve managed to stay the course. Stella likes the Chargers here, counting on Austin Ekeler to have another strong contest and QB Justin Herbert to bounce back a bit. She also likes the defense to handle the Raiders attack without too much difficulty. More than the action on the field, this is an interesting one because it has a ton of playoff implications. The team that wins is in, the other is out, with all manner of trickle-down effects that depend on which is the victor. Plus, a tie could potentially put them both in.
(Just for fun, here are the other winners I’d have picked if I were trying to fully catch up to Stella this week: Cincinnati, Detroit, Chicago, Houston, Seattle, Carolina.)
So again, this is just a formality. Stella is going to triumph once again. We’ll do a full celebration after next week confirms it all; now, we’re just waiting to find out the number on which we’ll ultimately land. Let’s all root for a less-embarrassing final result, shall we?
(winners in caps)
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ALLEN’S PICKS
Saturday, Jan. 8
KANSAS CITY at Denver
DALLAS at Philadelphia
Sunday, Jan. 9
Cincinnati at CLEVELAND
GREEN BAY at Detroit
Chicago at MINNESOTA
WASHINGTON at NY Giants
INDIANAPOLIS at Jacksonville
PITTSBURGH at Baltimore
TENNESSEE at Houston
NEW ORLEANS at Atlanta
NY Jets at BUFFALO
SAN FRANCISCO at LA Rams
NEW ENGLAND at Miami
Seattle at ARIZONA
Carolina at TAMPA BAY
LA Chargers at LAS VEGAS
Week 17 record: 12-4
Season record: 153-102-1
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STELLA’S PICKS
Saturday, Jan. 8
KANSAS CITY at Denver
Dallas at PHILADELPHIA
Sunday, Jan. 9
Cincinnati at CLEVELAND
GREEN BAY at Detroit
Chicago at MINNESOTA
Washington at NY GIANTS
INDIANAPOLIS at Jacksonville
Pittsburgh at BALTIMORE
TENNESSEE at Houston
New Orleans at ATLANTA
NY Jets at BUFFALO
San Francisco at LA RAMS
New England at MIAMI
Seattle at ARIZONA
Carolina at TAMPA BAY
LA CHARGERS at Las Vegas
Week 17 record: 10-6
Season record: 166-89-1